Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | ETSU -600 VMI +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +4 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | ETSU -11.8 (-7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (-4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -8.8 (-4.8) | 136.8 (-2.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -7.7 (-3.7) | 136.7 (-2.7) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -9.5 (-5.5) | 139.3 (-5.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -9.5 (-5.5) | 138.4 (-4.4) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | ETSU 87 – 70 VMI |
| Jan 8, 2026 | ETSU 81 – 67 VMI |
| Feb 5, 2025 | ETSU 62 – 55 VMI |
| Jan 1, 2025 | ETSU 84 – 69 VMI |
| Mar 9, 2024 | ETSU 98 – 66 VMI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 2-16 |
| Home | 7-9 | 6-8 |
| Away | 4-9 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 78.4 |
| Massey | -4.1 (#241) | -12.2 (#347) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.60 (#314) | -2.58 (#355) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.60 (#289) | -3.06 (#352) |
| RPI | 0.424 (#315) | 0.394 (#345) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | VMI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.73 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 15.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 14.6% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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