Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | SJU +163 PROV -213 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SJU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +5 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -3.0 (+8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.3 (-16.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -2.2 (+7.2) | 156.4 (-15.4) | 38% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -3.1 (+8.1) | 151.4 (-10.4) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -2.5 (+7.5) | 154.9 (-13.9) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -2.4 (+7.4) | 155.9 (-14.9) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | SJU 85 – 72 PROV |
| Feb 14, 2026 | SJU 79 – 69 PROV |
| Jan 3, 2026 | PROV 77 – 71 SJU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SJU 68 – 66 PROV |
| Dec 21, 2024 | SJU 72 – 70 PROV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SJU | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 13-7 |
| Home | 11-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.3 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#95) | 11.7 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.92 (#92) | 2.23 (#26) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.33 (#80) | 2.97 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#155) | 0.581 (#42) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SJU | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 12.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.19 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 17.8% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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