Betting Lines
| Spread | CREI -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | CREI -200 CONN +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CREI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +3 | 109 | Won |
| Massey | CREI -0.7 (+2.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.1 (-35.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CREI -2.3 (+0.7) | 145.4 (-36.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CREI -1.8 (+1.2) | 143.5 (-34.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CREI -2.3 (+0.7) | 145.3 (-36.3) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CREI -2.2 (+0.8) | 146.2 (-37.2) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | CREI 91 – 84 CONN |
| Feb 1, 2026 | CONN 85 – 58 CREI |
| Mar 15, 2025 | CREI 71 – 62 CONN |
| Feb 12, 2025 | CONN 70 – 66 CREI |
| Jan 18, 2025 | CREI 68 – 63 CONN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CREI | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 31-8 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 13-7 |
| Home | 13-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 6-5 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | W6 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 64.1 |
| Massey | 15.2 (#12) | 18.0 (#5) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.01 (#38) | 2.55 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.81 (#25) | 3.57 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#35) | 0.598 (#27) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CREI | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 37.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 77.4% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.1% | 29.7% |
Game Analysis
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