Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | UMBC +110 BRY -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +3 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -0.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.0 (-13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRY -0.2 (+3.2) | 154.4 (-5.4) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRY -0.4 (+3.4) | 153.1 (-4.1) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRY -0.4 (+3.4) | 153.4 (-4.4) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRY -0.4 (+3.4) | 154.7 (-5.7) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | UMBC 70 – 58 BRY |
| Jan 15, 2026 | BRY 79 – 74 UMBC |
| Mar 8, 2025 | BRY 85 – 74 UMBC |
| Feb 15, 2025 | BRY 81 – 79 UMBC |
| Jan 31, 2025 | BRY 92 – 86 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 17-13 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 8-8 |
| Home | 13-4 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-10 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 75.4 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#225) | 0.3 (#161) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.27 (#200) | 0.33 (#143) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#205) | -0.08 (#179) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#214) | 0.535 (#112) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | BRY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 35.2% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 27.1% | 28.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.3% | 26.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.5% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.3% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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