Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | MD -400 PSU +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +6 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | MD -7.2 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -7.8 (-1.8) | 134.4 (+7.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -7.1 (-1.1) | 137.7 (+4.3) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -7.4 (-1.4) | 135.4 (+6.6) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -7.3 (-1.3) | 136.2 (+5.8) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | MD 96 – 73 PSU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MD 68 – 64 PSU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | PSU 85 – 69 MD |
| Dec 7, 2023 | MD 81 – 75 PSU |
| Mar 5, 2023 | PSU 65 – 64 MD |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 23-14 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 10-10 |
| Home | 16-1 | 13-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 72.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.5 | 68.2 |
| Massey | 12.3 (#26) | 8.7 (#59) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.96 (#40) | 1.41 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#39) | 2.02 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#37) | 0.541 (#101) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 38.4% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 5.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 13.1% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 17.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 13.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.2% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 75.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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