Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Over |
| Money | MD -385 PSU +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +6 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | MD -5.3 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.2 (+22.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -3.8 (+2.2) | 137.2 (+18.8) | 68% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -3.8 (+2.2) | 134.5 (+21.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -3.4 (+2.6) | 135.2 (+20.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -4.2 (+1.8) | 136.0 (+20.0) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | MD 96 – 73 PSU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MD 68 – 64 PSU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | PSU 85 – 69 MD |
| Mar 5, 2023 | PSU 65 – 64 MD |
| Feb 11, 2023 | MD 74 – 68 PSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 9-11 |
| Home | 11-6 | 12-4 |
| Away | 4-8 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 2-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 75.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.9 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 1.9 (#138) | 2.3 (#133) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#257) | -1.07 (#270) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.00 (#246) | -1.13 (#250) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#258) | 0.439 (#271) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.2% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 22.7% | 29.4% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.7% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 33.4% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 23.5% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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