Betting Lines
| Spread | PSU -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Under |
| Money | PSU -178 MD +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +1 | 129 | Won |
| Massey | PSU -0.7 (+0.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.8 (-8.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -1.1 (-0.1) | 134.2 (-5.2) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -1.8 (-0.8) | 138.3 (-9.3) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -1.6 (-0.6) | 139.6 (-10.6) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -1.3 (-0.3) | 137.4 (-8.4) | 61% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | MD 96 – 73 PSU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MD 68 – 64 PSU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | PSU 85 – 69 MD |
| Dec 7, 2023 | MD 81 – 75 PSU |
| Feb 11, 2023 | MD 74 – 68 PSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-14 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 11-9 |
| Home | 13-3 | 16-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.2 | 63.5 |
| Massey | 9.6 (#52) | 12.5 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.59 (#57) | 1.96 (#39) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.15 (#51) | 2.55 (#32) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#85) | 0.583 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 39.0% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 5.8 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 13.3% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 18.0% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 14.1% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.0% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
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