Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | PSU -111 MD -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PSU +16 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | PSU -0.2 (+15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (+14.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -0.6 (+15.4) | 143.1 (+10.9) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PSU -0.8 (+15.2) | 141.4 (+12.6) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -1.6 (+14.4) | 141.5 (+12.5) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -1.1 (+14.9) | 142.5 (+11.5) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | MD 96 – 73 PSU |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MD 68 – 64 PSU |
| Dec 7, 2023 | MD 81 – 75 PSU |
| Mar 5, 2023 | PSU 65 – 64 MD |
| Feb 11, 2023 | MD 74 – 68 PSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 7-13 |
| Home | 12-4 | 11-6 |
| Away | 2-8 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-5 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.4 | 65.9 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#84) | 9.7 (#58) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.81 (#110) | 0.94 (#101) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.20 (#101) | 1.64 (#77) |
| RPI | 0.512 (#148) | 0.511 (#155) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 28.5% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 30.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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