Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | MD -120 PSU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +23 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | PSU -1.3 (+24.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.2 (+17.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PSU -1.0 (+24.0) | 142.0 (+27.0) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -0.0 (+23.0) | 141.1 (+27.9) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PSU -1.0 (+24.0) | 142.4 (+26.6) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PSU -1.2 (+24.2) | 142.6 (+26.4) | 42% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2025 | MD 68 – 64 PSU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | PSU 85 – 69 MD |
| Dec 7, 2023 | MD 81 – 75 PSU |
| Mar 5, 2023 | PSU 65 – 64 MD |
| Feb 11, 2023 | MD 74 – 68 PSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MD | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 3-17 |
| Home | 7-8 | 9-8 |
| Away | 2-10 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.6 | 79.3 |
| Massey | 0.3 (#161) | 5.0 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.01 (#174) | 0.42 (#132) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#165) | 0.44 (#138) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#189) | 0.521 (#134) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MD | PSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.8% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 13.8% |
| ORB% | 33.6% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 32.1% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.7% | 55.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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