Betting Lines
| Spread | MD -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | PSU +165 MD -195 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MD +4 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | MD -6.1 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.5 (-22.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MD -3.8 (-0.2) | 152.8 (-20.8) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MD -3.7 (-0.3) | 150.7 (-18.7) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MD -4.2 (+0.2) | 151.3 (-19.3) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MD -3.6 (-0.4) | 152.6 (-20.6) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 18, 2026 | MD 96 – 73 PSU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | PSU 85 – 69 MD |
| Dec 7, 2023 | MD 81 – 75 PSU |
| Mar 5, 2023 | PSU 65 – 64 MD |
| Feb 11, 2023 | MD 74 – 68 PSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PSU | MD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 14-6 |
| Home | 11-6 | 17-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 81.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 10.5 (#58) | 19.8 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.08 (#85) | 2.58 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#68) | 3.60 (#18) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#146) | 0.590 (#36) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PSU | MD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 48.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.30 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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