Betting Lines
| Spread | WRST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | WRST -150 NKU +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WRST +18 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | WRST -5.4 (+12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (+6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WRST -3.5 (+14.5) | 143.0 (+5.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WRST -3.9 (+14.1) | 143.0 (+5.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WRST -4.5 (+13.5) | 142.5 (+5.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WRST -4.1 (+13.9) | 143.7 (+4.3) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | WRST 103 – 90 NKU |
| Mar 1, 2026 | WRST 92 – 91 NKU |
| Jan 24, 2026 | WRST 88 – 80 NKU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | NKU 80 – 76 WRST |
| Jan 18, 2025 | WRST 78 – 70 NKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WRST | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-15 | 22-13 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 14-6 |
| Home | 9-6 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-8 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.3 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 64.7 |
| Massey | -0.3 (#174) | -2.1 (#211) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#234) | -0.13 (#185) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#223) | -0.01 (#171) |
| RPI | 0.472 (#236) | 0.507 (#163) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WRST | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.9% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 24.4% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 66.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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