Betting Lines
| Spread | WRST -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | WRST -170 NKU +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NKU +4 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | WRST -5.4 (-9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (+10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WRST -4.2 (-8.2) | 146.3 (+9.7) | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WRST -3.4 (-7.4) | 145.7 (+10.3) | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WRST -4.3 (-8.3) | 147.0 (+9.0) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WRST -3.9 (-7.9) | 147.3 (+8.7) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | WRST 103 – 90 NKU |
| Mar 1, 2026 | WRST 92 – 91 NKU |
| Jan 24, 2026 | WRST 88 – 80 NKU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | WRST 78 – 70 NKU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | NKU 99 – 97 WRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WRST | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 11-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 12-6 |
| Away | 3-12 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.5 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#211) | -4.8 (#244) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.55 (#222) | -0.76 (#239) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.57 (#211) | -0.98 (#243) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#213) | 0.473 (#229) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WRST | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.9% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 67.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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