Betting Lines
| Spread | WRST -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | WRST -350 NKU +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WRST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NKU +2 | 196 | Lost |
| Massey | WRST -6.3 (-8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.9 (+30.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WRST -5.9 (-7.9) | 160.1 (+35.9) | 73% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WRST -4.1 (-6.1) | 160.1 (+35.9) | 59% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WRST -4.9 (-6.9) | 161.8 (+34.2) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WRST -5.1 (-7.1) | 164.9 (+31.1) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | WRST 103 – 90 NKU |
| Mar 1, 2026 | WRST 92 – 91 NKU |
| Jan 24, 2026 | WRST 88 – 80 NKU |
| Feb 22, 2025 | NKU 80 – 76 WRST |
| Jan 18, 2025 | WRST 78 – 70 NKU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WRST | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 12-8 |
| Home | 9-7 | 12-3 |
| Away | 7-6 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 86.2 | 73.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 82.8 | 73.8 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#148) | -1.7 (#191) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#170) | -0.25 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#157) | -0.30 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.516 (#141) | 0.506 (#161) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WRST | NKU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.9% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.4% | 31.0% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.5% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 25.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 67.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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