Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | TROY +110 UL -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TROY +15 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | TROY -1.1 (+13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.5 (-2.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 33% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TROY -0.1 (+14.9) | 144.9 (+0.1) | 47% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -0.1 (+15.1) | 141.2 (+3.8) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TROY -0.4 (+14.6) | 144.8 (+0.2) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TROY -0.1 (+14.9) | 145.7 (-0.7) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 25, 2026 | TROY 78 – 59 UL |
| Jan 10, 2026 | TROY 90 – 70 UL |
| Feb 21, 2025 | UL 72 – 69 TROY |
| Feb 13, 2025 | TROY 74 – 56 UL |
| Feb 29, 2024 | TROY 87 – 73 UL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-3 | 14-0 |
| Away | 7-8 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#127) | 4.8 (#99) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.13 (#159) | 1.50 (#60) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.26 (#145) | 1.95 (#61) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#140) | 0.580 (#45) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 47.3% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 30.3% | 34.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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