Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | PRES +180 UNCA -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +4 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCA -6.2 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.5 (+12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -6.9 (+2.9) | 136.4 (+11.6) | 22% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -5.9 (+1.9) | 136.4 (+11.6) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -7.4 (+3.4) | 137.3 (+10.7) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -8.1 (+4.1) | 139.7 (+8.3) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | PRES 58 – 57 UNCA |
| Jan 15, 2026 | PRES 71 – 70 UNCA |
| Feb 26, 2025 | PRES 64 – 59 UNCA |
| Jan 11, 2025 | UNCA 96 – 87 PRES |
| Feb 14, 2024 | UNCA 71 – 69 PRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PRES | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-27 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 16-2 |
| Home | 5-9 | 13-0 |
| Away | 0-15 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L18 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.8 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 69.8 |
| Massey | -10.3 (#333) | -0.5 (#180) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.99 (#360) | 0.48 (#132) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.17 (#357) | 0.39 (#140) |
| RPI | 0.346 (#363) | 0.535 (#111) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PRES | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 38.6% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.7% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 20.9% |
Game Analysis
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