Betting Lines
| Spread | UTM -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | UTM -200 LR +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UTM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTM +23 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | UTM -7.3 (+15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.5 (-16.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTM -5.1 (+17.9) | 158.1 (-13.1) | 75% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTM -5.4 (+17.6) | 156.9 (-11.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTM -5.7 (+17.3) | 156.2 (-11.2) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTM -4.9 (+18.1) | 158.1 (-13.1) | 77% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | LR 67 – 65 UTM |
| Feb 4, 2026 | UTM 55 – 52 LR |
| Mar 7, 2025 | LR 82 – 77 UTM |
| Feb 1, 2025 | LR 75 – 57 UTM |
| Jan 3, 2025 | LR 57 – 56 UTM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UTM | LR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 4-11 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.4 | 75.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.1 | 80.9 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#268) | -9.5 (#327) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#267) | -2.04 (#343) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.19 (#268) | -2.48 (#338) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#246) | 0.388 (#352) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UTM | LR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 27.4% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 56.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.7% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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