Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | ND +170 VT -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +6 | 180 | Lost |
| Massey | VT -6.2 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.4 (+36.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -6.1 (+0.1) | 148.6 (+31.4) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -5.5 (-0.5) | 146.1 (+33.9) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -5.3 (-0.7) | 146.7 (+33.3) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -6.0 (-0.0) | 149.0 (+31.0) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | VT 89 – 76 ND |
| Feb 8, 2025 | VT 65 – 63 ND |
| Mar 9, 2024 | VT 82 – 76 ND |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ND 74 – 66 VT |
| Mar 8, 2023 | VT 67 – 64 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-8 | 13-4 |
| Away | 0-10 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.1 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -1.2 (#197) | 8.5 (#63) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#213) | 1.33 (#68) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#194) | 1.84 (#62) |
| RPI | 0.470 (#239) | 0.562 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 47.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 53.9% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 20.3% | 25.9% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.1% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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