Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | VT -285 ND +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +13 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | VT -5.5 (+7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (+16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -5.0 (+8.0) | 141.7 (+23.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -4.2 (+8.8) | 141.1 (+23.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -5.4 (+7.6) | 139.3 (+25.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -5.6 (+7.4) | 140.0 (+25.0) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2025 | VT 65 – 63 ND |
| Mar 9, 2024 | VT 82 – 76 ND |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ND 74 – 66 VT |
| Mar 8, 2023 | VT 67 – 64 ND |
| Feb 11, 2023 | VT 93 – 87 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 4-14 |
| Home | 14-3 | 10-7 |
| Away | 3-7 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.9 | 75.3 |
| Massey | 10.4 (#56) | 8.3 (#75) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.10 (#41) | 1.62 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.00 (#42) | 2.40 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.613 (#29) | 0.565 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 38.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 53.3% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 48.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 14.2% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 23.6% |
Game Analysis
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