Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | VT -600 ND +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +6 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | VT -10.5 (-4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.9 (+26.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -9.5 (-3.5) | 134.4 (+23.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -10.0 (-4.0) | 134.9 (+23.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -10.4 (-4.4) | 135.8 (+22.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -10.6 (-4.6) | 133.8 (+24.2) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | VT 89 – 76 ND |
| Feb 8, 2025 | VT 65 – 63 ND |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ND 74 – 66 VT |
| Mar 8, 2023 | VT 67 – 64 ND |
| Feb 11, 2023 | VT 93 – 87 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 7-13 |
| Home | 15-2 | 9-8 |
| Away | 2-10 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 64.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#52) | 2.7 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.52 (#65) | 0.38 (#136) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.98 (#60) | 0.59 (#130) |
| RPI | 0.561 (#65) | 0.495 (#186) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.7% | 40.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.6 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.2% | 47.0% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 24.9% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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