Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | ND +163 VT -213 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ND +8 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | VT -5.6 (+13.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.3 (+10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -4.6 (+12.6) | 132.0 (+8.0) | 38% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -6.0 (+14.0) | 133.5 (+6.5) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -5.7 (+13.7) | 131.8 (+8.2) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VT -5.2 (+13.2) | 131.7 (+8.3) | 36% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | VT 89 – 76 ND |
| Feb 8, 2025 | VT 65 – 63 ND |
| Mar 9, 2024 | VT 82 – 76 ND |
| Mar 8, 2023 | VT 67 – 64 ND |
| Feb 11, 2023 | VT 93 – 87 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 10-10 |
| Home | 9-8 | 15-2 |
| Away | 2-10 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.0 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#154) | 9.5 (#58) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.47 (#218) | 1.62 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#207) | 2.08 (#61) |
| RPI | 0.473 (#223) | 0.570 (#64) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.8% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 32.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.70 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 21.0% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.9% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.9% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 21.1% |
Game Analysis
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