Betting Lines
| Spread | ND -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | ND -340 VT +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +2 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | ND -8.6 (-10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (-11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ND -7.3 (-9.3) | 136.9 (-8.9) | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ND -6.0 (-8.0) | 132.9 (-4.9) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ND -7.2 (-9.2) | 136.8 (-8.8) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ND -7.0 (-9.0) | 137.8 (-9.8) | 74% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | VT 89 – 76 ND |
| Mar 9, 2024 | VT 82 – 76 ND |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ND 74 – 66 VT |
| Mar 8, 2023 | VT 67 – 64 ND |
| Feb 11, 2023 | VT 93 – 87 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ND | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-5 | 8-9 |
| Away | 3-9 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.6 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 73.2 |
| Massey | 6.6 (#86) | 1.2 (#146) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#162) | 0.22 (#155) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#126) | 0.08 (#163) |
| RPI | 0.495 (#186) | 0.495 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ND | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 36.8% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 19.6% |
| ORB% | 30.8% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.2% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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