Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | VT -275 ND +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +3 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | VT -8.1 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (-10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -8.5 (-5.5) | 138.9 (-7.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -9.1 (-6.1) | 141.1 (-10.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -9.0 (-6.0) | 141.7 (-10.7) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -8.9 (-5.9) | 141.2 (-10.2) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | VT 89 – 76 ND |
| Feb 8, 2025 | VT 65 – 63 ND |
| Mar 9, 2024 | VT 82 – 76 ND |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ND 74 – 66 VT |
| Feb 11, 2023 | VT 93 – 87 ND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | ND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 3-17 |
| Home | 13-4 | 11-8 |
| Away | 2-10 | 0-10 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 7.9 (#78) | -0.3 (#172) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.27 (#77) | -0.30 (#205) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#72) | -0.21 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#96) | 0.470 (#243) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | ND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 6.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.59 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 13.4% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 19.7% |
| FT Rate | 19.0% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 13.6% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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