Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | GAST +300 MRSH -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +11 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | MRSH -9.8 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (+21.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -9.6 (-1.4) | 149.1 (+15.9) | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -7.4 (-3.6) | 150.4 (+14.6) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -9.7 (-1.3) | 146.0 (+19.0) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -9.6 (-1.4) | 148.5 (+16.5) | 21% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | GAST 81 – 73 MRSH |
| Dec 31, 2025 | MRSH 84 – 80 GAST |
| Mar 7, 2025 | MRSH 79 – 76 GAST |
| Jan 31, 2025 | GAST 85 – 81 MRSH |
| Jan 24, 2025 | MRSH 92 – 79 GAST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 24-8 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 13-5 |
| Home | 10-9 | 15-2 |
| Away | 0-11 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L8 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.1 | 81.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 71.2 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#252) | 8.8 (#58) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.09 (#277) | 1.06 (#84) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.19 (#269) | 1.49 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#286) | 0.564 (#68) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.9% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 1.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 20.2% | 15.4% |
| ORB% | 30.2% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 15.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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