Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | DREX +140 TOW -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DREX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DREX +7 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | DREX -1.4 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.5 (+12.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -0.2 (+7.2) | 131.8 (+7.2) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -0.1 (+7.1) | 128.6 (+10.4) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -0.0 (+7.0) | 132.2 (+6.8) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -0.2 (+7.2) | 133.2 (+5.8) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | DREX 68 – 62 TOW |
| Jan 19, 2026 | TOW 59 – 58 DREX |
| Mar 9, 2025 | TOW 82 – 76 DREX |
| Feb 1, 2025 | TOW 55 – 54 DREX |
| Jan 11, 2025 | TOW 93 – 82 DREX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DREX | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-3 | 10-2 |
| Away | 3-9 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.0 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -1.1 (#195) | 1.1 (#146) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#212) | 0.48 (#131) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#211) | 0.53 (#130) |
| RPI | 0.479 (#219) | 0.512 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DREX | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 37.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.18 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 36.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.4% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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