Betting Lines
| Spread | SPU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 121.5 Over |
| Money | SPU -125 MRST +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SPU +11 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | SPU -3.6 (+7.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.6 (+2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SPU -1.3 (+9.7) | 127.7 (-4.7) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SPU -3.2 (+7.8) | 124.7 (-1.7) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SPU -1.4 (+9.6) | 127.4 (-4.4) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SPU -2.2 (+8.8) | 128.4 (-5.4) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | SPU 63 – 56 MRST |
| Jan 3, 2026 | SPU 69 – 59 MRST |
| Mar 2, 2025 | SPU 57 – 52 MRST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | MRST 56 – 51 SPU |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SPU 69 – 60 MRST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SPU | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 6-14 |
| Home | 8-6 | 5-10 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 60.9 | 63.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -7.7 (#304) | -7.7 (#303) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.41 (#301) | -1.51 (#307) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.68 (#297) | -1.95 (#317) |
| RPI | 0.441 (#290) | 0.431 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SPU | MRST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.2% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.5% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.3% | 47.3% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 36.6% | 24.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 18.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.3% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 38.9% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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