Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | AUB +110 ALA -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +8 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | ALA -5.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (-5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -3.1 (-4.9) | 154.1 (-8.1) | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -1.7 (-6.3) | 153.2 (-7.2) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALA -3.5 (-4.5) | 150.1 (-4.1) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALA -3.7 (-4.3) | 151.7 (-5.7) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | ALA 96 – 84 AUB |
| Feb 7, 2026 | ALA 96 – 92 AUB |
| Mar 8, 2025 | ALA 93 – 91 AUB |
| Feb 15, 2025 | AUB 94 – 85 ALA |
| Feb 8, 2024 | AUB 99 – 81 ALA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 31-6 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 16-2 |
| Home | 14-2 | 15-0 |
| Away | 4-8 | 9-3 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 81.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.7 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 12.0 (#28) | 20.6 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.98 (#39) | 3.58 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.38 (#42) | 4.16 (#3) |
| RPI | 0.607 (#22) | 0.671 (#1) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | ALA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 44.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 33.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.5% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.6% | 41.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 72.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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