Betting Lines
| Spread | WIN -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | WIN -150 UPST +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UPST +9 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | WIN -5.5 (-14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (+6.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WIN -3.9 (-12.9) | 138.8 (+10.2) | 63% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WIN -4.8 (-13.8) | 138.1 (+10.9) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WIN -4.3 (-13.3) | 140.6 (+8.4) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | WIN -4.1 (-13.1) | 141.8 (+7.2) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | WIN 68 – 64 UPST |
| Jan 10, 2026 | WIN 71 – 50 UPST |
| Feb 8, 2025 | WIN 105 – 95 UPST |
| Jan 2, 2025 | WIN 95 – 76 UPST |
| Feb 24, 2024 | WIN 83 – 74 UPST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-4 | 11-2 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 67.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 70.8 |
| Massey | -4.6 (#248) | -6.5 (#287) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#268) | -0.84 (#259) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.21 (#273) | -1.12 (#259) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#268) | 0.450 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | UPST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.6% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 29.9 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.5% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 25.4% |
| FT Rate | 30.2% | 21.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 65.5% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 31.7% |
Game Analysis
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