Betting Lines
| Spread | JAX -0.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | JAX +100 FGCU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JAX win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FGCU +11 | 113 | Lost |
| Massey | JAX -0.8 (-11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.4 (-13.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JAX -0.2 (-11.2) | 130.7 (-17.7) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FGCU -0.5 (-10.5) | 128.1 (-15.1) | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JAX -0.8 (-11.8) | 133.6 (-20.6) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | JAX -0.6 (-11.6) | 134.5 (-21.5) | 49% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | FGCU 86 – 84 JAX |
| Jan 31, 2026 | FGCU 68 – 49 JAX |
| Feb 18, 2025 | FGCU 72 – 56 JAX |
| Jan 30, 2025 | FGCU 83 – 79 JAX |
| Mar 2, 2024 | FGCU 59 – 57 JAX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JAX | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-16 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-6 | 8-5 |
| Away | 6-10 | 6-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.0 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.7 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -3.5 (#229) | -0.7 (#186) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.10 (#183) | 0.27 (#146) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.17 (#186) | 0.50 (#132) |
| RPI | 0.506 (#164) | 0.525 (#129) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JAX | FGCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 43.1% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 50.9% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 29.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.5% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.8% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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