Betting Lines
| Spread | BRAD -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | BRAD -800 MUR +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BRAD +35 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | BRAD -14.0 (+21.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.0 (-7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BRAD -11.6 (+23.4) | 141.8 (-10.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BRAD -10.9 (+24.1) | 138.2 (-7.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BRAD -12.1 (+22.9) | 141.9 (-10.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BRAD -12.9 (+22.1) | 142.5 (-11.5) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2026 | BRAD 87 – 78 MUR |
| Jan 4, 2026 | MUR 86 – 66 BRAD |
| Mar 8, 2025 | BRAD 70 – 62 MUR |
| Feb 22, 2025 | BRAD 85 – 83 MUR |
| Jan 18, 2025 | BRAD 74 – 61 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRAD | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 11-9 |
| Home | 15-1 | 11-2 |
| Away | 8-6 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.0 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.8 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 7.6 (#73) | -2.8 (#224) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.05 (#85) | 0.08 (#163) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.19 (#92) | -0.08 (#178) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#55) | 0.496 (#183) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRAD | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 30.7% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 18.7% | 24.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 18.5% |
Game Analysis
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