Betting Lines
| Spread | NCCU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | NCCU -400 MORG +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCCU +20 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | NCCU -8.5 (+11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (+3.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCCU -5.1 (+14.9) | 140.4 (+5.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCCU -6.0 (+14.0) | 139.6 (+6.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCCU -5.4 (+14.6) | 140.6 (+5.4) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCCU -5.2 (+14.8) | 140.4 (+5.6) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | NCCU 80 – 76 MORG |
| Jan 12, 2026 | NCCU 89 – 78 MORG |
| Feb 18, 2025 | MORG 92 – 78 NCCU |
| Jan 7, 2025 | MORG 102 – 98 NCCU |
| Mar 5, 2024 | MORG 88 – 79 NCCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCCU | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-12 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 10-4 | 7-7 |
| Home | 13-1 | 10-2 |
| Away | 4-10 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 75.3 |
| Massey | -1.6 (#202) | -6.4 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#246) | -0.58 (#236) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#226) | -1.04 (#255) |
| RPI | 0.464 (#248) | 0.495 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCCU | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.77 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 22.5% | 21.7% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.1% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.4% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 23.3% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 61.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 30.5% |
Game Analysis
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