Betting Lines
| Spread | GASO -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | GASO -300 ARST +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GASO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GASO +15 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | GASO -8.8 (+6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.1 (-5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GASO -7.0 (+8.0) | 131.2 (-10.2) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GASO -5.3 (+9.7) | 128.2 (-7.2) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GASO -6.6 (+8.4) | 131.4 (-10.4) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GASO -6.1 (+8.9) | 132.2 (-11.2) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | GASO 80 – 77 ARST |
| Jan 23, 2026 | ARST 85 – 68 GASO |
| Jan 5, 2024 | ARST 109 – 83 GASO |
| Jan 1, 2022 | ARST 74 – 56 GASO |
| Mar 5, 2021 | ARST 62 – 58 GASO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GASO | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 4-14 |
| Home | 12-4 | 10-8 |
| Away | 3-11 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.1 | 63.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 68.5 |
| Massey | -2.7 (#221) | -7.9 (#306) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#223) | -1.53 (#309) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#231) | -1.94 (#316) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#224) | 0.405 (#335) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GASO | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.0% | 46.6% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.2% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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