Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +18 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -1.0 (+17.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.7 (-4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -2.4 (+15.6) | 136.1 (-6.1) | 63% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -2.9 (+15.1) | 133.5 (-3.5) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -2.7 (+15.3) | 139.3 (-9.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -1.9 (+16.1) | 139.5 (-9.5) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | GASO 80 – 77 ARST |
| Jan 23, 2026 | ARST 85 – 68 GASO |
| Jan 5, 2024 | ARST 109 – 83 GASO |
| Feb 11, 2023 | GASO 68 – 53 ARST |
| Mar 5, 2021 | ARST 62 – 58 GASO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-11 | 13-16 |
| Conference | 8-7 | 5-11 |
| Home | 11-3 | 7-5 |
| Away | 6-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 63.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.8 | 67.6 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#242) | -0.3 (#182) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#128) | -0.06 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.43 (#141) | -0.37 (#209) |
| RPI | 0.503 (#162) | 0.481 (#207) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 22.9% | 22.3% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 19.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.