Then she opened up a book of poems and handed it to me, written by an Italian poet from the thirteenth century. "Tangled Up in Blue" - Bob Dylan
Sun Belt Conference · First National Bank Arena · January 1, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread ARST -3.5 Home covered
O/U 137.0 Under
Model Predictions
Spread Total ARST win
Actual ARST +18 130 Won
Massey ARST -1.0 (+17.0)
Massey Totals 134.7 (-4.7)
Bradley-Terry 81%
Weighted B-T 84%
Efficiency Plus ML ARST -2.9 (+15.1) 133.5 (-3.5) 61%
Baseline Tuned ML ARST -2.7 (+15.3) 139.3 (-9.3) 65%
Baseline ML ARST -1.9 (+16.1) 139.5 (-9.5) 59%
Baseline Plus ML ARST -2.4 (+15.6) 136.1 (-6.1) 63%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 6, 2026 GASO 8077 ARST
Jan 23, 2026 ARST 8568 GASO
Jan 5, 2024 ARST 10983 GASO
Feb 11, 2023 GASO 6853 ARST
Mar 5, 2021 ARST 6258 GASO

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ARST GASO
Overall 18-11 13-16
Conference 8-7 5-11
Home 11-3 7-5
Away 6-7 4-10
Neutral 1-1 2-1
Last 5 4-1 1-4
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 69.1 63.6
Avg Pts Against 68.8 67.6
Massey -3.7 (#242) -0.3 (#182)
Bradley-Terry 0.59 (#128) -0.06 (#186)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.43 (#141) -0.37 (#209)
RPI 0.503 (#162) 0.481 (#207)
Shooting & Four Factors ARST GASO
FG% 46.1% 46.3%
3PT% 36.9% 31.2%
REB / G 34.3 33.2
OREB / G 10.1 9.1
AST / TO 0.95 0.78
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.6% 51.5%
TOV% 22.9% 22.3%
ORB% 32.2% 29.0%
FT Rate 29.0% 19.9%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 49.5% 48.9%
Opp TOV% 19.9% 20.8%
DRB% 66.5% 69.3%
Opp FT Rate 18.7% 22.2%

Game Analysis

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