Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 172.5 Under |
| Money | GASO -102 ARST -118 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GASO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +17 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | ARST -1.6 (-15.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 177.5 (-24.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 34% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -1.4 (-15.6) | 165.9 (-12.9) | 45% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -2.1 (-14.9) | 160.6 (-7.6) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -1.3 (-15.7) | 162.0 (-9.0) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -1.2 (-15.8) | 164.2 (-11.2) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | GASO 80 – 77 ARST |
| Jan 5, 2024 | ARST 109 – 83 GASO |
| Feb 11, 2023 | GASO 68 – 53 ARST |
| Jan 1, 2022 | ARST 74 – 56 GASO |
| Mar 5, 2021 | ARST 62 – 58 GASO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GASO | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-16 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 9-5 | 11-4 |
| Away | 6-8 | 9-7 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 81.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.3 | 78.0 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#248) | -0.2 (#169) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.41 (#211) | 0.81 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.01 (#237) | 0.89 (#107) |
| RPI | 0.465 (#238) | 0.582 (#52) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GASO | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 35.8 | 40.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 14.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 14.0% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 29.3% | 37.3% |
| FT Rate | 30.3% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 64.1% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.2% | 27.8% |
Game Analysis
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