Arkansas State
Red Wolves
62
–
58
FINAL
Neutral
Sun Belt Conference Championship
Georgia Southern
Eagles
Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | ARST -110 GASO +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +4 | 120 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -1.9 (+2.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.2 (-20.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -2.3 (+1.7) | 137.4 (-17.4) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -1.4 (+2.6) | 135.3 (-15.3) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -1.4 (+2.6) | 136.9 (-16.9) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -1.8 (+2.2) | 137.6 (-17.6) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | GASO 80 – 77 ARST |
| Jan 23, 2026 | ARST 85 – 68 GASO |
| Jan 5, 2024 | ARST 109 – 83 GASO |
| Feb 11, 2023 | GASO 68 – 53 ARST |
| Jan 1, 2022 | ARST 74 – 56 GASO |
Game Analysis
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