Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Under |
| Money | ARST -355 GASO +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GASO +3 | 157 | Lost |
| Massey | ARST -7.3 (-10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 171.6 (-14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 73% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -6.6 (-9.6) | 161.2 (-4.2) | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -7.7 (-10.7) | 161.4 (-4.4) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -7.3 (-10.3) | 160.7 (-3.7) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -7.3 (-10.3) | 159.8 (-2.8) | 75% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 23, 2026 | ARST 85 – 68 GASO |
| Jan 5, 2024 | ARST 109 – 83 GASO |
| Feb 11, 2023 | GASO 68 – 53 ARST |
| Jan 1, 2022 | ARST 74 – 56 GASO |
| Mar 5, 2021 | ARST 62 – 58 GASO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 21-16 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 11-4 | 9-5 |
| Away | 9-7 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.8 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.0 | 80.3 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#148) | -6.0 (#266) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#131) | -0.64 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#128) | -1.03 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#87) | 0.464 (#257) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 41.7 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 14.2 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 37.9% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 65.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.9% | 31.3% |
Game Analysis
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