Hop in my Chrysler, it's as big as a whale and it's about to set sail. "Love Shack" - The B-52's
Arkansas State Red Wolves
77 80
FINAL Neutral Conference Sun Belt
Georgia Southern Eagles
Sun Belt Conference · Pensacola Bay Center (Neutral) · March 6, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread ARST -7.5 Away covered
O/U 165.5 Under
Money ARST -355 / GASO +280
Model Predictions
Spread Total ARST win
Actual GASO +3 157 Lost
Massey ARST -7.3 (-10.3)
Massey Totals 171.6 (-14.6)
Bradley-Terry 73%
Weighted B-T 81%
Efficiency Plus ML ARST -10.6 (-13.6) 163.5 (-6.5) 84%
Baseline Tuned ML ARST -8.5 (-11.5) 161.0 (-4.0) 80%
Baseline ML ARST -8.6 (-11.6) 159.7 (-2.7) 80%
Baseline Plus ML ARST -8.0 (-11.0) 161.8 (-4.8) 80%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 23, 2026 ARST 8568 GASO
Jan 5, 2024 ARST 10983 GASO
Feb 11, 2023 GASO 6853 ARST
Jan 1, 2022 ARST 7456 GASO
Mar 5, 2021 ARST 6258 GASO

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ARST GASO
Overall 20-12 21-16
Conference 11-7 8-10
Home 11-4 9-5
Away 9-7 6-8
Neutral 0-1 6-3
Last 5 4-1 2-3
Streak L1 W1
Avg Pts For 81.8 79.9
Avg Pts Against 78.0 80.3
Massey 1.2 (#148) -6.0 (#266)
Bradley-Terry 0.36 (#131) -0.64 (#232)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.46 (#128) -1.03 (#245)
RPI 0.542 (#87) 0.464 (#257)
Shooting & Four Factors ARST GASO
FG% 44.4% 42.7%
3PT% 33.0% 32.2%
REB / G 41.7 34.2
OREB / G 14.2 11.0
AST / TO 1.04 0.99
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.8% 50.3%
TOV% 19.8% 14.6%
ORB% 37.9% 28.7%
FT Rate 29.2% 29.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.0% 52.2%
Opp TOV% 14.9% 18.6%
DRB% 72.9% 65.5%
Opp FT Rate 25.9% 31.3%

Game Analysis

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