Betting Lines
| Spread | ARST -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | ARST -400 GASO +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARST +26 | 192 | Won |
| Massey | ARST -12.8 (+13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.6 (+45.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARST -8.9 (+17.1) | 146.9 (+45.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARST -9.6 (+16.4) | 143.7 (+48.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARST -9.8 (+16.2) | 144.3 (+47.7) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARST -9.4 (+16.6) | 144.4 (+47.6) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | GASO 80 – 77 ARST |
| Jan 23, 2026 | ARST 85 – 68 GASO |
| Feb 11, 2023 | GASO 68 – 53 ARST |
| Jan 1, 2022 | ARST 74 – 56 GASO |
| Mar 5, 2021 | ARST 62 – 58 GASO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 9-24 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-3 | 6-7 |
| Away | 5-11 | 2-14 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 79.2 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#201) | -10.3 (#326) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.95 (#266) | -2.62 (#344) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#256) | -2.90 (#326) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#272) | 0.366 (#352) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.67 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 33.1% | 28.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 53.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.1% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 64.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.6% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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