Betting Lines
| Spread | BAY -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | TCU +110 BAY -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BAY +4 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | TCU -1.7 (-5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (-10.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TCU -1.9 (-5.9) | 148.8 (-8.8) | 57% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TCU -2.2 (-6.2) | 146.3 (-6.3) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TCU -2.5 (-6.5) | 148.4 (-8.4) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TCU -1.6 (-5.6) | 149.1 (-9.1) | 60% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | TCU 97 – 90 BAY |
| Jan 3, 2026 | TCU 69 – 63 BAY |
| Mar 5, 2025 | BAY 61 – 58 TCU |
| Jan 19, 2025 | TCU 74 – 71 BAY |
| Feb 27, 2024 | BAY 62 – 54 TCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TCU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-4 | 14-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.3 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 70.3 |
| Massey | 13.7 (#20) | 15.6 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.44 (#20) | 2.85 (#11) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.38 (#13) | 3.54 (#10) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#53) | 0.626 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TCU | BAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.33 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 36.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 22.5% |
Game Analysis
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