Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | BC +188 NCSU -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +30 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | NCSU -7.3 (-22.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.4 (+11.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -5.5 (-24.5) | 143.8 (+10.2) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -6.6 (-23.4) | 141.3 (+12.7) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -6.1 (-23.9) | 145.0 (+9.0) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -5.9 (-24.1) | 145.1 (+8.9) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | NCSU 79 – 71 BC |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NCSU 70 – 62 BC |
| Feb 24, 2024 | NCSU 81 – 70 BC |
| Dec 2, 2023 | NCSU 84 – 78 BC |
| Feb 24, 2022 | BC 69 – 61 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 12-8 |
| Home | 9-7 | 15-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.6 | 77.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 70.8 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#183) | 10.2 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.28 (#145) | 2.30 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.45 (#136) | 2.60 (#34) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#179) | 0.587 (#38) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.4% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.0% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 74.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.6% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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