Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | BC +575 NCSU -850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +8 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | NCSU -13.2 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.7 (+5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -11.7 (+3.7) | 136.8 (+13.2) | 16% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -10.1 (+2.1) | 139.8 (+10.2) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -9.9 (+1.9) | 139.6 (+10.4) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -10.9 (+2.9) | 138.3 (+11.7) | 16% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2025 | NCSU 70 – 62 BC |
| Feb 24, 2024 | NCSU 81 – 70 BC |
| Dec 2, 2023 | NCSU 84 – 78 BC |
| Feb 11, 2023 | NCSU 92 – 62 BC |
| Feb 24, 2022 | BC 69 – 61 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-7 | 11-6 |
| Away | 1-10 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | W1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 83.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 76.3 |
| Massey | -1.3 (#189) | 15.7 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.69 (#233) | 1.62 (#69) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.62 (#207) | 2.52 (#57) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#255) | 0.565 (#74) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | NCSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 27.9% | 37.9% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 36.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.6% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 14.6% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.6% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 73.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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