Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | NCSU -213 BC +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +11 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -4.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.4 (-1.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -4.0 (+7.0) | 150.3 (+0.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -3.7 (+7.3) | 148.3 (+2.7) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -3.9 (+7.1) | 153.3 (-2.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -3.8 (+7.2) | 152.2 (-1.2) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | NCSU 79 – 71 BC |
| Feb 15, 2025 | NCSU 70 – 62 BC |
| Dec 2, 2023 | NCSU 84 – 78 BC |
| Feb 11, 2023 | NCSU 92 – 62 BC |
| Feb 24, 2022 | BC 69 – 61 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-15 | 20-16 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 8-12 |
| Home | 12-5 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 10-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.6 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#79) | 6.8 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.42 (#70) | 1.16 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#77) | 1.55 (#89) |
| RPI | 0.530 (#123) | 0.546 (#98) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 46.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 35.4 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.4 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.38 | 1.36 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 15.3% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 26.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.8% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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