Betting Lines
| Spread | NCSU -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | NCSU -450 BC +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCSU +8 | 132 | Won |
| Massey | NCSU -10.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (-11.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NCSU -8.5 (-0.5) | 144.4 (-12.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NCSU -8.3 (-0.3) | 142.8 (-10.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NCSU -8.6 (-0.6) | 145.1 (-13.1) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NCSU -8.8 (-0.8) | 144.1 (-12.1) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | NCSU 79 – 71 BC |
| Feb 24, 2024 | NCSU 81 – 70 BC |
| Dec 2, 2023 | NCSU 84 – 78 BC |
| Feb 11, 2023 | NCSU 92 – 62 BC |
| Feb 24, 2022 | BC 69 – 61 NCSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCSU | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 4-16 |
| Home | 12-6 | 9-8 |
| Away | 0-11 | 0-10 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#104) | -3.0 (#215) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#188) | -0.30 (#198) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#167) | -0.56 (#216) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#236) | 0.468 (#238) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCSU | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 32.3 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.32 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 49.7% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 67.0% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 27.6% |
Game Analysis
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