Betting Lines
| Spread | LAF -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
| Money | LAF -150 BU +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAF +4 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | LAF -5.1 (-1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.7 (+13.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -3.7 (+0.3) | 129.4 (+4.6) | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -1.0 (+3.0) | 126.7 (+7.3) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAF -3.2 (+0.8) | 128.6 (+5.4) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -3.2 (+0.8) | 129.0 (+5.0) | 62% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | BU 77 – 73 LAF |
| Jan 8, 2026 | BU 83 – 67 LAF |
| Mar 1, 2025 | BU 66 – 64 LAF |
| Jan 3, 2025 | LAF 60 – 46 BU |
| Jan 27, 2024 | BU 62 – 48 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAF | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-23 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 5-7 | 9-4 |
| Away | 5-16 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 67.7 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#244) | -5.8 (#270) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.40 (#299) | -1.03 (#274) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.53 (#286) | -1.47 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#271) | 0.454 (#272) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAF | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 31.3 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 22.4% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 14.6% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 75.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 25.6% |
Game Analysis
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