Betting Lines
| Spread | USM -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | USM -800 ULM +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +9 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | USM -17.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.2 (+6.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -14.7 (-5.7) | 136.7 (+6.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USM -11.8 (-2.8) | 137.5 (+5.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -13.6 (-4.6) | 137.9 (+5.1) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -14.9 (-5.9) | 136.8 (+6.2) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | USM 70 – 60 ULM |
| Jan 1, 2026 | USM 87 – 73 ULM |
| Feb 15, 2025 | ULM 81 – 74 USM |
| Jan 10, 2025 | USM 84 – 67 ULM |
| Feb 16, 2024 | ULM 68 – 59 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USM | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 7-11 |
| Home | 15-0 | 7-8 |
| Away | 8-7 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 63.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.5 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#76) | -6.0 (#273) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.92 (#41) | -0.80 (#256) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.22 (#49) | -0.94 (#249) |
| RPI | 0.602 (#24) | 0.465 (#247) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USM | ULM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.5% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.0% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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