Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | GMU -225 URI +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +8 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -7.2 (+0.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.1 (+8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -5.8 (+2.2) | 135.6 (+6.4) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -5.4 (+2.6) | 134.4 (+7.6) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -5.2 (+2.8) | 135.7 (+6.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -5.6 (+2.4) | 135.6 (+6.4) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 24, 2026 | URI 74 – 65 GMU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | GMU 61 – 50 URI |
| Feb 8, 2025 | GMU 82 – 67 URI |
| Jan 4, 2025 | URI 62 – 59 GMU |
| Mar 7, 2024 | GMU 69 – 51 URI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | URI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 9-22 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-2 | 7-9 |
| Away | 4-7 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 66.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 70.6 |
| Massey | 0.9 (#151) | -2.7 (#222) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.11 (#160) | -0.69 (#244) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.19 (#158) | -0.86 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#132) | 0.473 (#230) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | URI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 30.4% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 38.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 20.8% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 27.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.4% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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