Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | FLA -450 VAN +310 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +8 | 168 | Lost |
| Massey | FLA -9.9 (-17.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.5 (+28.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -8.0 (-16.0) | 141.7 (+26.3) | 77% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -7.2 (-15.2) | 141.8 (+26.2) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -8.0 (-16.0) | 139.0 (+29.0) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -7.6 (-15.6) | 138.7 (+29.3) | 79% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | VAN 91 – 74 FLA |
| Jan 17, 2026 | FLA 98 – 94 VAN |
| Feb 5, 2025 | FLA 86 – 75 VAN |
| Mar 9, 2024 | VAN 79 – 78 FLA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | FLA 77 – 64 VAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 22-15 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-6 | 14-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.2 | 71.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.6 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 10.6 (#41) | 4.3 (#105) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#59) | 1.11 (#82) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.99 (#59) | 1.14 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.568 (#61) | 0.555 (#80) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 24.3% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.2% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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