Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | VAN +350 FLA -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +1 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -12.1 (+13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.1 (+1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -10.3 (+11.3) | 153.6 (+3.4) | 18% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -9.7 (+10.7) | 154.1 (+2.9) | 20% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -10.8 (+11.8) | 153.3 (+3.7) | 16% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -10.5 (+11.5) | 155.2 (+1.8) | 20% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | VAN 91 – 74 FLA |
| Jan 17, 2026 | FLA 98 – 94 VAN |
| Feb 5, 2025 | FLA 86 – 75 VAN |
| Feb 24, 2024 | FLA 77 – 64 VAN |
| Feb 25, 2023 | VAN 88 – 72 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 11-7 |
| Home | 8-10 | 14-1 |
| Away | 1-9 | 3-7 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 7-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 85.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.9 | 79.2 |
| Massey | -2.2 (#202) | 13.1 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#222) | 2.25 (#25) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#238) | 2.94 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.460 (#267) | 0.599 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.6% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 27.9% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 43.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 15.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.3% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 38.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 14.9% |
| DRB% | 70.4% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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