Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | FLA -1600 VAN +750 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +13 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -19.2 (-6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.9 (-14.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -14.1 (-1.1) | 154.6 (-13.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -16.0 (-3.0) | 153.7 (-12.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -16.3 (-3.3) | 155.6 (-14.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -17.4 (-4.4) | 155.7 (-14.7) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | VAN 91 – 74 FLA |
| Jan 17, 2026 | FLA 98 – 94 VAN |
| Feb 5, 2025 | FLA 86 – 75 VAN |
| Mar 9, 2024 | VAN 79 – 78 FLA |
| Feb 25, 2023 | VAN 88 – 72 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 4-14 |
| Home | 14-1 | 8-10 |
| Away | 3-7 | 1-9 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.6 | 67.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.2 | 75.9 |
| Massey | 13.1 (#28) | -2.8 (#215) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.19 (#27) | -0.62 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.85 (#21) | -0.83 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#25) | 0.459 (#262) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.3% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 28.8% |
| REB / G | 44.2 | 34.3 |
| OREB / G | 16.2 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 45.2% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 39.8% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 25.1% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 52.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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