Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | FLA -340 VAN +270 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +17 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | FLA -5.6 (-22.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.0 (+5.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FLA -5.3 (-22.3) | 159.3 (+5.7) | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FLA -4.0 (-21.0) | 162.7 (+2.3) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FLA -5.9 (-22.9) | 161.0 (+4.0) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FLA -5.2 (-22.2) | 159.7 (+5.3) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | FLA 98 – 94 VAN |
| Feb 5, 2025 | FLA 86 – 75 VAN |
| Mar 9, 2024 | VAN 79 – 78 FLA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | FLA 77 – 64 VAN |
| Feb 25, 2023 | VAN 88 – 72 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FLA | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-1 | 13-3 |
| Away | 8-2 | 8-4 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 87.1 | 85.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 75.0 |
| Massey | 25.5 (#4) | 19.9 (#13) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.78 (#7) | 3.14 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.04 (#4) | 4.26 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.641 (#5) | 0.620 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FLA | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.9% | 47.7% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 45.7 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 16.0 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 55.4% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 13.5% |
| ORB% | 42.8% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 30.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.4% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 31.2% |
Game Analysis
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