Betting Lines
| Spread | FLA -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Over |
| Money | VAN +102 FLA -122 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FLA +4 | 192 | Lost |
| Massey | VAN -4.5 (-8.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.8 (+29.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -4.9 (-8.9) | 160.4 (+31.6) | 68% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -5.5 (-9.5) | 163.4 (+28.6) | 72% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -5.5 (-9.5) | 158.5 (+33.5) | 73% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -6.2 (-10.2) | 159.0 (+33.0) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | VAN 91 – 74 FLA |
| Feb 5, 2025 | FLA 86 – 75 VAN |
| Mar 9, 2024 | VAN 79 – 78 FLA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | FLA 77 – 64 VAN |
| Feb 25, 2023 | VAN 88 – 72 FLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 16-2 |
| Home | 13-3 | 14-1 |
| Away | 8-4 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 85.7 | 87.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 71.5 |
| Massey | 21.3 (#8) | 20.1 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.22 (#9) | 2.87 (#30) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.36 (#11) | 4.48 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.668 (#9) | 0.626 (#25) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 46.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 17.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.84 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.8% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 13.6% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 43.7% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 46.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 76.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.8% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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