Betting Lines
| Spread | VAN -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | VAN -188 FLA +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAN +16 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | FLA -0.6 (+16.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.3 (+16.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VAN -1.8 (+14.2) | 147.3 (+12.7) | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VAN -2.5 (+13.5) | 147.7 (+12.3) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VAN -2.1 (+13.9) | 146.0 (+14.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VAN -2.1 (+13.9) | 147.8 (+12.2) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | VAN 91 – 74 FLA |
| Jan 17, 2026 | FLA 98 – 94 VAN |
| Feb 5, 2025 | FLA 86 – 75 VAN |
| Mar 9, 2024 | VAN 79 – 78 FLA |
| Feb 24, 2024 | FLA 77 – 64 VAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAN | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-15 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 14-6 | 10-6 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.9 | 71.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 68.6 |
| Massey | 5.3 (#94) | 9.5 (#52) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.34 (#69) | 1.22 (#77) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.41 (#80) | 1.61 (#71) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#60) | 0.544 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAN | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 37.1 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.8% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.4% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 46.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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